Coercive Competition: Geostrategic Rivalry in Africa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25159/2522-3062/14781Keywords:
Afrodiplomacy, Afrostrategy, calibrated cooperation, global powers, statecraft, strategic competitionAbstract
The geostrategic rivalry between the West and the East is taking centre stage in global affairs, with Africa becoming an alluring battleground. Averting overt conflict, global powers are using economic, political and military statecraft to pursue strategic and security interests on the African continent. The strategic competition between global powers in Africa has significant diplomatic, military and ideological dimensions, with technological and economic dimensions dominating. Unless Africa intercedes to secure a détente among the global powers, the rivalry of these powers will be detrimental to the continent. This article examines how Africa can mitigate the negative effects of coercive competition on the continent, and how the continent may benefit from its increased allure to global powers. The central thesis is that African governments should develop a coherent strategy for dealing with global powers so as not to exacerbate their geostrategic rivalry. Instead, African governments should launch calibrated cooperation on matters of mutual interest for the common good.
References
Adruino A, ‘China’s Expanding Security: From Arms Transfers to Military Cooperation’ (ISPI, 30 September 2024) <https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/chinas-expanding-security-footprint-in-africa-from-arms-transfers-to-military-cooperation-184841> accessed 22 November 2024.
Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, ‘Tracking Russian Interference to Derail Democracy in Africa’ (Infographic, 21 June 2023 (updated 8 May 2024)) <https://africacenter.org/spotlight/russia-interference-undermine-democracy-africa/> accessed 21 November 2024.
African Union, ‘Africa-South America’ (African Union, n.d.) <https://au.int/en/partnerships/africa_southamerica> accessed 20 April 2024.
African Union. ‘The Diaspora Division’ (African Union, n.d.) <https://au.int/en/diaspora-division> accessed 24 August 2024.
Agarwal M and Kumar S, ‘BRICS Countries’ Increasing Role in the World Economy, Including Institutional Innovation’ (2023) 4(2) BRICS Journal of Economics <https://doi.org/10.3897/brics-econ.4.e99451> DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/brics-econ.4.e99451
Ashford E and Kroenig M, ‘Does U.S. Military Training Embolden Coup Plotters in Africa?’ (Foreign Affairs, 4 August 2023) <https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/04/niger-coup-military-training-africa/>
Azad TM, Haider MW and Sadiq M, ‘Understanding Gray Zone Warfare From Multiple Perspectives’ (2023) 186(1) World Affairs <https://doi.org/10.1177/00438200221141101> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00438200221141101
Badza I and Maeresera S, ‘The Ezulwini Consensus and Africa’s Quagmire on United Nations Security Council Reform: Unpacking the Dynamics’ (2019) 9(Special Issue 1) AFFRIKA Journal of Politics, Economics and Society <https://doi.org/10.31920/2075-6534/2019/s1n1a12> DOI: https://doi.org/10.31920/2075-6534/2019/S1n1a12
Beckley M, ‘Delusions of Détente: Why America and China Will Be Enduring Rivals’ (Foreign Affairs, 22 August 2023) <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-delusions-detente-rivals> accessed 26 August 2024.
Biden JR, ‘The U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa’ (The White House, August 2022), <https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/U.S.-Strategy-Toward-Sub-Saharan-Africa-FINAL.pdf> accessed 19 May 2024.
Blanken L, Lepore J and Boss C, ‘Escaping the Zero-Sum Trap in Strategic Competition with China’ (Modern War Institute, 29 May 2024) <https://mwi.wespoint.edu/escaping-the-zero-sum-trap-in-strategic-competition-with-china/> accessed 20 June 2024.
Brookes P and Shin JH, ‘China’s Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States’ (The Heritage Foundation, 22 February 2006) <https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/chinas-influence-africa-implications-the-united-states> accessed 22 August 2024.
Brown M and Atkinson R, ‘The Real Contest with China: Washington Needs a Comprehensive Industrial Strategy to Outpace Beijing’ (Foreign Affairs, 28 August 2023) <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-contest-beijing-industrial-strategy> accessed 30 August 2024.
Cascais A and Koubakin R, ‘Mercenary Armies in Africa’ (DW, 15 April 2022) <https://www.dw.com/en/the-rise-of-mercenary-armies-in-africa/a-61485270> accessed 24 August 2024.
Cohn TH and Hira A, Global Political Economy: Theory and Practice (Routledge 2021) <https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003056881> DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003056881
Cordesman AH, ‘The Biden Transition and U.S. Competition with China and Russia: The Crisis-Driven Need to Change U.S. Strategy’ (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6 January 2021) <https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/2020811.Burke_Chair.AHC_.GH9_.pdf> accessed 15 November 2024.
Dagar D and Mutasa C, Africa and the World: Bilateral and Multilateral Diplomacy (Palgrave Macmillan 2018).
Department of Defence, Joint Publication 3-0: Joint Operations (Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2017)
Dollar D and Svensson J, ‘What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programs?’ (2000) 110(466) The Economic Journal <https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00569> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00569
Eaglen M, ‘Just Say No: The Pentagon Needs to Drop the Distractions and Move Great Power Competition Beyond Lip Service’ (War on the Rocks, 28 October 2019) <https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/just-say-no-the-pentagon-needs-to-drop-the-distractions-and-move-great-power-competition-beyond-lip-service/>
Fabricius P, ‘EU Peace and Security Funds Can Now Bypass the African Union’ (ISS Today, 5 February 2021) <https://issafrica.org/iss-today/eu-peace-and-security-funds-can-now-bypass-the-african-union> accessed 24 August 2024.
Forward Defence Experts, ‘Today’s Wars are Fought in the “Gray Zone”’ (Atlantic Council, 23 February 2022) <https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/todays-wars-are-fought-in-the-gray-zone-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-about-it/> accessed 27 August 2024.
Gain MA, ‘Conflicting Agendas and Strategic Rivalry in the Sahel’ (Middle East Institute, 16 November 2021) <https://www.mei.edu/publications/conflicting-agendas-and-strategic-rivalry-sahel> accessed 24 August 2024.
Gardner H, ‘Geopolitics and Geostrategy’ (Oxford Bibliography, 2 March 2011) <https://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0056> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780199743292-0056
Gavin M, ‘In Africa, Major Power Rivalry Is Not the Whole Story’ (Council on Foreign Relations, 24 May 2021) <https://www.cfr.org/blog/africa-major-power-rivalry-not-whole-story> accessed 20 November 2024.
Gidon Y, ‘Israel and Africa’ in J Peters and G Pinfold (eds), Routledge Handbook on Israel’s Foreign Relations (Routledge 2024) <https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003048398-32> DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003048398-32
Gilpin SI, ‘China, Africa and the International Aid System: A Challenge to (the Norms Underpinning) the Neoliberal World Order?’ (2023) 58(3) Journal of Asian and African Studies <https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096211063804> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096211063804
Gyimah-Boadi E, Signé L and Sanny J A-N, ‘U.S. Foreign Policy Toward Africa: An African Citizen Perspective’ (Brookings, 23 October 2020) <https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-foreign-policy-toward-africa-an-african-citizen-perspective/> accessed 24 August 2024.
Hanauer L and Morris LJ, ‘China in Africa: Implications of a Deepening Relationship’ (RAND, 12 March 2014) <https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9760.html> accessed 27 July 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RB9760
Hugon P (S Jordan (trs)), ‘Cooperation: New Players in Africa’ (2010) International Development Policy <https://doi.org/10.4000/poldev.138> DOI: https://doi.org/10.4000/poldev.138
International Court of Justice, Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v Israel), Press Release No. 2024/64, 9 October 2024 <https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20241009-pre-01-00-en.pdf> accessed 22 November 2022.
Jamal JP, ‘Why does Malawi support Israel so strongly?’ (AA Middle East, 8 October 2024) <https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/why-does-malawi-support-israel-so-strongly/3355602#> accessed 21 November 2024.
John, OI, Messina G-M and Chukwuemeka OA, ‘The Effects of Neocolonialism on Africa’s Development’ (2023) 4(2) PanAfrican Journal of Governance and Development <https://doi.org/10.46404/panjogov.v4i2.4846> DOI: https://doi.org/10.46404/panjogov.v4i2.4846
Karbo T and Virk K, The Palgrave Handbook of Peacebuilding in Africa (Palgrave Macmillan 2018) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62202-6> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62202-6
Kuwali D, ‘Squaring the Circle: The Role of the African Peace and Security Architecture’ in T Karbo and K Virk (eds), The Palgrave Handbook of Peacebuilding in Africa (Palgrave Macmillan 2018) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62202-6_3> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62202-6_3
Kuwali D, ‘Is Accountable Governance a Solution to African Problems?’ (Raoul Wallenberg Institute, 2 September 2022) <https://rwi.lu.se/blog/is-accountable-governance-a-solution-to-african-problems/> accessed 26 August 2024.
Kuwali D and Kuwali T, ‘Afrodiplomacy: Collective Continental Communiqué’ in F Onditi, K McLarren, G Ben-Nun, YA Stivachtis and P Okoth (eds), The Palgrave Handbook of Diplomatic Thought and Practice in the Digital Age (Palgrave Macmillan 2023) <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-28214-0_3> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-28214-0_3
Link J, ‘5 Things U.S. Policymakers Must Understand About China-Africa Relations’ (CAP20, 5 October 2021) <https://www.americanprogress.org/article/5-things-u-s-policymakers-must-understand-china-africa-relations/> accessed10 November 2021.
Mazarr MJ and Ke I, ‘Integrated Deterrence as a Defense Planning Concept’ (RAND, 4 June 2024) <https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2263-1.html> accessed 21 November 2024.
Mazrui AA, Towards a Pax Africana: A Study of Ideology and Ambition (Weidenfeld and Nicolson 1967).
McCaskey K, ‘Competition, Clarified’ (United States Army War College, June 2022).
McIntosh BJ, ‘Wielding the Tools of Economic Statecraft’ (2021) 12(1) Journal of National Security Law & Policy.
Mdoe G, ‘Africa’s Rising Global Role as BRICS Onboards Egypt and Ethiopia’ (The Exchange, 15 November 2024) <https://theexchange.africa/industry-and-trave/brics-in-africa/> accessed 21 November 2024.
Miller EA, ‘More Chinese Military Bases in Africa: A Question of When, Not If’ (Foreign Policy, 16 August 2022) <https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/16/china-military-bases-africa-navy-pla-geopolitics-strategy/> accessed 30 January 2023.
Miller J and Erfourth M, ‘SOF in Competition: Establishing the Foundation of Strategy’ (2019) 6(3) Small Wars Journal.
Moon P, ‘Global Value Chains, Risk Perception, and Economic Statecraft’ (ICC Policy Brief, 6 January 2022) <https://ucigcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/igcc_policy-brief_global-value-chains.pdf> accessed 24 August 2024.
Nantulya P, ‘Africa’s Interests in Strengthening the United Nations System’ (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 14 August 2023) <https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africa-interests-strengthening-united-nations-system/> accessed 11 May 2024.
Nazir S, ‘Challenge the Challenge: The U.S. Strategy to Tackle Rising China’ (United States Army War College, 2014).
Norrlöf C, ‘Will Economic Statecraft Threaten Western Currency Dominance?’ (Atlantic Council, 27 September 2022) <https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/will-economic-statecraft-threaten-western-currency-dominance-sanctions-geopolitics-and-the-global-monetary-order/> accessed 24 August 2024.
Nuechterlein DE, America Recommitted: A Superpower Assesses Its Role in a Turbulent World (University Press of Kentucky 2014) <https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt130jb8j> DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt130jb8j
Nyabiage J, ‘Why African Nations are Keen to Join the Expanding BRICS Club?’ (South China Morning Post, 16 July 2023) <https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3227835/why-african-nations-are-keen-join-expanding-brics-club> accessed 20 August 2024.
Olewe D, ‘Africa Needs China and the U.S. to Work Together’ (BBC News, 9 December 2021) <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59531176> accessed 11 April 2024.
Rampe W, ‘What is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa?’ (Council on Foreign Relations, 23 May 2023) <https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa> accessed 20 November 2024).
Reuters, ‘What Is BRICS, Which Countries Want to Join and Why?’ (Reuters, 22 August 2023) <https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-brics-who-are-its-members-2023-08-21/> accessed 10 May 2024.
Rühl B, ‘Why private foreign security firms are booming in Africa’ (DW, 7 February 2021) <https://www.dw.com/en/why-private-foreign-security-companies-are-booming-in-africa/a-58134009> accessed 25 November 2024.
Salman Y, ‘The Security Element in Israel-Africa Relations,’ (2021) 24(2) Strategic Assessment <https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/The-Security-Element-in-Israel-Africa-Relations.pdf> accessed 11 May 2024.
Sánchez JA, ‘Cooperation Between Latin America and Africa From the Perspective of the Peoples of the Diaspora’ (Latinoamérica21, 18 May 2023) <https://latinoamerica21.com/en/cooperation-between-latin-america-and-africa-from-the-perspective-of-the-peoples-of-the-diaspora/> accessed 24 August 2024)
Schelling T, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press 1967) <https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5vm52s> DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt5vm52s
Schler L, ‘Israel and Africa 1955–1973’ in J Peters and RG Pinfold (eds), Routledge Handbook on Israel’s Foreign Relations (Routledge 2024) <https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003048398-15> DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003048398-15
Shatz HJ, ‘Economic Competition in the 21st Century’ (RAND, 17 July 2020) <https://doi.org/10.7249/RR4188> DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RR4188
Soulé F, ‘Africa Can Use Great Power Rivalry to Its Benefit: Here Is How’ (The Conversation, 6 January 2022) <https://theconversation.com/africa-can-use-great-power-rivalry-to-its-benefit-here-is-how-172662> accessed 24 August 2024.
Southern & East African Tourism Update, ‘Turkish Airlines to Grow African Routes’ (Tourism Update, 17 October 2023 <https://www.tourismupdate.co.za/article/turkish-airlines-grow-african-routes?page=61> accessed 21 November 2024.
Srivastava P, ‘Belt Road Initiative: Chinese Guise for Neo-Colonialism’ (United States Army War College, 2019).
Stein P and Uddhammar E, ‘China in Africa: The Role of Trade, Investments, and Loans Amidst Shifting Geopolitical Ambitions’ (ORF, 25 August 2021) <https://www.orfonline.org/public/uploads/posts/pdf/20230814142301.pdf> accessed 26 August 2024.
Štiglic D, ‘Towards Security Through Economic Policy: A Baldwin’s Approach’ (2017) 7(1) Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues <https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2017.7.1(6)> DOI: https://doi.org/10.9770/jssi.2017.7.1(6)
Stuenkel O, The BRICS and the Future of the Global Order (2nd edn, Lexington Books 2020).
Szczepański M, ‘China’s Economic Coercion: Evolution, Characteristics, and Countermeasures’ (European Parliament Think Tank, 15 November 2022) <https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/738219/EPRS_BRI(2022)738219_EN.pdf > accessed 24 August 2024.
The People’s Republic of China, ‘China’s International Development Cooperation in the New Era’ (The State Council Information Office, January 2021) <https://english.mee.gov.cn/Resources/publications/Whitep/202101/P020210122374486901993.pdf> accessed 10 May 2024.
Total Military Insight, ‘Navigating the Challenges Facing Private Military Contractors’ (Total Military Insight, 6 July 2024) <https://totalmilitaryinsight.com/challenges-facing-private-military-contractors/> accessed 26 August 2024.
Townsend A, Santoro D and Thomas-Noone B, ‘Revisiting Deterrence in an Era of Strategic Competition (United States Studies Centre, 8 February 2019) <https://www.ussc.edu.au/revisiting-deterrence-in-an-era-of-strategic-competition> accessed 24 August 2024.
Turse N, ‘How Many More Governments Will American-Trained Soldiers Overthrow?’ (Rolling Stone, 25 February 2023) <https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/west-africa-coup-american-trained-soldier-1234657139/> accessed 21 November 2024.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), ‘Human Development Report 2023–24: Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarized World’ (UNDP, 13 March 2024) <https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2023-24> accessed 22 May 2024.
Varol OO, ‘The Military as the Guardian of Constitutional Democracy’ (2013) 50 Columbia Journal of Transnational Law <https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2161013> accessed 16 August 2024.
Veebel V, ‘Russia and Western Concepts of Deterrence, Normative Power, and Sanctions’ (2021) 40(3) Comparative Strategy <https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.1912509> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.1912509
Velthuizen D, ‘Peace and Security in Africa: How China Can Help Address Weaknesses’ (The Conversation, 18 April 2021) <https://theconversation.com/peace-and-security-in-africa-how-china-can-help-address-weaknesses-156219> accessed 31 January 2024.
Venkatachalam M and Banik D, ‘India in Africa: The Changing Face of South-South Cooperation’ (African Arguments, 8 November 2022) <https://africanarguments.org/2022/11/india-in-africa-the-changing-face-of-south-south-cooperation> accessed 24 August 2024.
Waltz KN, Theory of International Politics (Columbia University Press 1979).
Wang D, ‘Balancing US-China Strategic Competition and Collaboration’ (East Asia Forum, 26 December 2021) <https://eastasiaforum.org/2021/12/26/balancing-us-china-strategic-competition-and-collaboration/> accessed 20 November 2024.
White L, ‘Emerging Powers in Africa: Is Brazil Any Different?’ (2013) 20(1) South African Journal of International Affairs <https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2013.781257> DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2013.781257
Wigell M, Scholvin S and Aaltola M (eds), Geoeconomic and Power Politics in the 21st Century: The Revival of Economic Statecraft (Routledge 2019) <https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351172288> DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351172288
World Population Review, ‘Countries in Africa 2024’ (World Population Review, 2024) <https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-in-africa> accessed 21 November 2024.
Yang YE and Liang W, Challenges to China’s Economic Statecraft: A Global Perspective (Lexington Books 2019).
Zabelin D, ‘Why Africa will become a prominent player in global geopolitics’ (World Economic Forum, 12 July 2023) <https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/07/why-africa-will-become-a-prominent-player-in-global-geopolitics/> accessed 24 August 2024.
Legislation
African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Public Law 106–200—May 18, 2000 114 Stat. 251 <https://agoa.info/images/documents/2/AGOA_legal_text.pdf>
International Instruments
Organisation of African Unity, ‘OAU Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa’ CM/817 (XXIX), Annex II Rev. 1, adopted 3 July 1977 <https://au.int/sites/default/files/treaties/37287-treaty-0009_-_oau_convention_for_the_elimination_of_mercenarism_in_africa_e.pdf> accessed 27 August 2024.
United Nations, ‘Charter of the United Nations, signed 26 June 1945, entered into force 24 October 1945 <https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/ctc/uncharter.pdf> accessed 27 October 2024.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
© Published by the Department of Public, Constitutional and International Law, University of South Africa and Unisa Press.
